Polling Aggregation

Opinion polls are an increasingly central part of election campaigns. My work focuses on the aggregation of opinion polls in Ireland and the Netherlands.

Peilingwijzer

Peilingwijzer combines Dutch national opinion polls. I started aggregating Dutch opinion polls in 2011, based on work by Simon Jackman. Since 2012 the Dutch public broadcaster NOS has regularly published the Peilingwijzer. The advice and help of my colleague Joop van Holsteyn has been instrumental in developping this project.

Irish Polling Indicator

The Irish Polling Indicator is published regularly. I started this project in 2014. In 2020, Stefan Müller (University College Dublin) joined the project, and he is currently the principal maintainer of the project.

elections methodology active
Tom Louwerse
Tom Louwerse
Associate Professor

Associate Professor in Political Science at Leiden University

Publications

Reporting the polls: the quality of media reporting of vote intention polls in the Netherlands
This article examines the media coverage of vote intention polls in the Netherlands. We assess whether the quality of media reporting …
PDF Code Dataset Project Project DOI Online Appendices Read online (free)
Improving opinion poll reporting: the Irish Polling Indicator
This article describes a statistical method for aggregating the information from Irish opinion polls.
PDF Code Dataset Project DOI
Peilingen in het nieuws: van hypes naar trends
Project Project Publisher website

Events

Peilingen en de Peilingwijzer
In this presentation I linked my work on the Dutch polling aggregator Peilingwijzer to political developments in the Netherlands.
Nov 3, 2023 12:00 PM — 1:00 PM Universiteit Leiden, Schouwburgstraat, Den Haag
Project
De Stem des Volks
De Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen organiseert deze middag haar 1e alumni event met het thema de uitwisseling tussen wetenschap en praktijk. Waar staat het onderzoek binnen Culturele Antropologie, Pedagogische Wetenschappen en Psychologie nu?
Nov 16, 2018 1:00 PM — 4:50 PM Leiden, the Netherlands
Project
Rol en reikwijdte van de peilingen
May 13, 2017 12:00 AM — 1:00 AM Leusden, the Netherlands
Project
Waarom zou je peilingen serieus nemen?
Apr 11, 2017 8:00 PM — 9:00 PM Leiden, the Netherlands
Project
Waarom zou je peilingen serieus nemen?
Mar 30, 2017 8:00 PM — 9:30 PM Leiden, the Netherlands
Project
Kun je peilingen eigenlijk wel serieus nemen?
Jan 11, 2017 8:00 PM — 10:00 PM Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Project
Beyond intuition: how sensible use of methodology can improve scientific research
May 12, 2016 12:00 PM — 1:00 PM Leiden, the Netherlands
Project